X 提示

顾问会尽快联系您,请保持电话畅通!

欧笙在线咨询

欧元区制造泡沫?美国经济可能进入衰退?

摘要: 欧洲央行持续为金融系统注入资金的行为就像是在制造一个危险的泡沫。欧洲央行最近宣布,决定降息10个基点,并开始每月购买200亿欧元资产的方案。The ECB continues to blow in

 

欧洲央行持续为金融系统注入资金的行为就像是在制造一个危险的泡沫。欧洲央行最近宣布,决定降息10个基点,并开始每月购买200亿欧元资产的方案。

The ECB continues to blow into a dangerous bubble that has been created by injecting money to the system. They decided to cut rates by 10 basis points and start a new purchase program of €20 bn per month. 

 

然而问题是,欧元区国家已经在使用负利率融资,节省了多达1万亿的利息支出;另一方面,欧洲央行于今年3月已经开启了各期限回购项目(TLTRO),将它体量巨大的余额表继续扩大到相当于欧元区GDP近40%的水平。欧洲央行正在从主权债和公司债发行者那里购置大得不成比例的债券,这些发行者从来没有因低利率融资出问题。这造成了巨大的泡沫。

The issue is that the Eurozone states are already being financed at negative rates, meaning that they are paid to borrow. This situation has saved as much as 1 trillion euro in interest expenses. On the other hand, the ECB already launched an all-maturities repurchase program (TLTRO) last March, enlarging its already huge balance sheet to almost 40% of the Eurozone GDP. The ECB is accumulating a disproportionate amount of sovereign and corporate debt from issuers that never had a problem in financing themselves with low rates. This create an enormous bubble.

 

欧元超额流通资金已有1.7万亿,增加流动性并不太可能刺激更多的家庭消费。如果超低利率刺激了更多的投资将如何?

The circulating excess liquidity is 1.7 trillion euro and injecting more would likely not push households to spend/consume more. What if ultra-low interest rate would rather incentivize for more investments? 

 

那将导致经济放缓。这项宽松政策还将对欧洲银行产生的影响:根据信用评级机构Scope Ratings的数据,它们的损失已经超过了230亿欧元,垃圾债券和高收益证券的需求增加将使担忧进一步加重。

That would slowdown the economy. Let’s not forget about the impact this easing policy will have on European banks. These have already lost more than €23 bn, according to Scope Ratings, and concerns rise as junk-debt and high-yield securities demand increases.

 

欧元区的问题不是缺乏刺激,现在可能反而是刺激太过多余。

The problem with the Eurozone is not a lack is stimulus, while it is probably an excess of it.

 

 

双线资本的首席执行官杰夫·冈拉赫认为,2020年之前我们将有75%的可能见证美国发生经济衰退。他预测,考虑到中美贸易摩擦以及出现与2007年类似的收益曲线倒挂,年底之前发生衰退的概率达到45%。布里奇沃特投资公司创始人雷伊·达里奥认为2020年之前有25%的概率发生衰退,影响经济下滑严重性的因素主要有以下四点:
DoubleLine CEO, Jeff Gundlach, sees a 75% chance of a US recession before the 2020 recession. He predicted a 45% chance of recession by the end of the year amid US-China trade war and an inverted yield curve that shows similarities to the 2007 one. Ray Dalio sees 25% chances of recession by 2020. He thinks there are 4 factors that will affect the severity of the downturn:

 

1)央行政策的有效性
Effectiveness of central-bank policies 

 

2)贫富差距(影响到下次衰退在社会层面和政治层面的反映)
The wealth gap, which will affect how the next recession will look like socially and politically

 

3)2020年选举
The 2020 election 
 
3)中国相对美国的崛起情况
The emergance of China in relation to the US 

 

尽管上周股市回升,债券市场增长乏力。
Although last week’s stocks rallied, bonds do not seem to buy it. 

 

 

美国工厂不仅因贸易摩擦而受创,还受到更多的不确定性、资本支出(CAPEX)下降、出口市场疲软、美元强势,以及更高投入成本的影响。
America’s factories have been hit not only by the trade war, but also by rising uncertainty, a drop in CAPEX, slowing export markets, a stronger dollar and higher input costs. 

 

8月发布的ISM制造业数据,自2016年以来首次缩减,使得股价和债券收益率暴跌。该指数上一次连续两个季度缩减发生在2016年,那时由于油价下跌,美国全国制造业减少了3万个就业岗位。然而,此前还并未出现过2019年第二季度这么剧烈的下滑(3.1%)。此外,制造业新增就业数为4.4万,去年同时期则是17万。
The August ISM number came out as the first contraction since 2016, driving stock prices and bond yields to tumble. The last time that the US showed two consecutive contracting quarters was in 2016, when the country lost circa 30,000 jobs in the manufacturing sector as a consequence of collapsing oil price. However, none of those quarters saw a drop as bad as the 3.1% slump the US experienced during the Q2 2019. Furthermore, the US added 44,000 jobs in the sector, compared to 170,000 in the same period last year.

 

 

从去年10月开始的2018财年还有一个月就将结束了,美国财政部的预算赤字合计达到了1万亿美元。从最近的预算数据来看,8月收据同比增长4%,达到2280亿美元;但被超过4280亿美元的支出抵消,结果是约2000亿美元的赤字,稍微小于上一年的2140亿美元。最令人担忧的是,从年初至今积累赤字激增19%,达到10670亿美元。
To conclude, the fiscal year 2018, started last October, has still one month to go and the US budget deficit hits $1tn of accumulate US Treasuries. According to the latest budget data, in August, the receipts gone up 4% year on year to $228bn, which were annihilated by more than $428bn in outlays. The result is a circa $200 bn deficit, fractionally smaller than the last year $214 bn figure. What concerns the most is the YTD cumulated deficit which surged 19% at $1067bn.

 

 

 

 
 
 

下周的宏观焦点

Next week our macro spotlight will be on?

 
 
 

 

周一 Monday
· 工业产出 - 中国
Industrial Output – China
· 消费者价格指数(CPI)  - 意大利
CPI – Italy 
· 纽约州联储制造业-美国
NY Fed Manufacturing - USA  
 
周二 Tuesday
· 欧洲经济研究中心(ZEW)经济情绪 - 德国
ZEW Economic Sentiment – Germany 
· 制造业销售额 - 加拿大
Manufacturing Sales – Canada 
· 房屋价格指数 - 澳大利亚
Home Price Index – Australia 
· 中国物价指数 - 中国
China Price Index – China  
· 工业产量 - 美国
Industrial Production – USA  
 
周三 Wednesday
· 消费者价格指数(CPI) - 英国
CPI – UK 
· 建造许可 - 美国
Build Permits – USA 
· 工业订单/销售额 - 意大利
Industrial Orders/Sales – Italy 
· 贸易平衡 - 日本
Trade Balance – Japan 
· 生产者价格指数(PPI)-产出 - 英国
PPI Output – UK 
· 消费者物价调和指数- 欧元区
HICP – Eurozone HICP  
· 消费者价格指数(CPI) - 加拿大
CPI – Canada 
· 新屋开工数-美国
House Starts - USA 
 
周四 Thursday
· 就业 - 澳大利亚
Employment – Australia 
· 零售业销售额 - 英国
Retail Sales – UK 
· 英国央行银行利率- 英国
BOE Bank Rate – UK 
· 首次申请失业救济人数 - 美国
Initial Jobless Claims – USA 
· 现有房屋销售 - 美国
Existing Homes Sales - USA 

 

周五 Friday
· 零售业销售额(除去汽车) - 加拿大
Retail Sales ex-Autos – Canada 
· 核心消费者价格指数(CPI)-日本
Core CPI – Japan  
· 生产者价格-德国
Producers Price – Germany 
· 消费者信心指数-欧元区
Consumer Confidence Index Flash - Eurozone 

 

 
 
 

本周图表

Chart of the Week

 
 
 

 

 

 
 
 

本周事件

Fact of the Week

 
 
 

 

欧洲央行将存款利率从-0.4%下调至-0.5%,并称从11月1日开始每个月将购买200亿欧元(220亿美元)的债券,直到达到通胀目标。

The ECB reduced the deposit rate to minus 0.5% from minus 0.4%, and said it’ll buy debt from Nov. 1 at a pace of 20 billion euros ($22 billion) a month for as long as necessary to hit its inflation goal.

 

 

 
 
 

本周摘录

Quote of the Week

 
 
 

 

“我们仍然认为欧元区衰退的概率较小,但概率增加了。”——欧洲央行行长马里奥·德拉吉对于欧元区衰退可能性的说法
"We still think the probability of recession for the euro area is small, but it’s gone up." ——Mario Draghi, ECB Governor on the likelihood of recession in the Eurozone 

 

        文章转载自公众号瑞麟资本

猜你喜欢

24小时精选

爱尔兰签约倒计时12天,仅余7个稀缺名额

2019-08-14爱尔兰签约倒计时12天,仅余7个稀缺名额

LON BANK:海外账户开设全攻略来袭!

2019-06-05LON BANK:海外账户开设全攻略来袭!

订阅我们

如果您喜欢我们的文章,就订阅我们吧!
提交
X

分享到微信朋友圈

© 2015-2019 Ousheng & Partners. All rights reserved. Ousheng & Partners is part of Kylin Prime.

欧笙版权所有 京ICP 备 17036279号