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英镑为何几涨几落?这周的“脱欧大戏”刺激值爆表!

英国脱欧

摘要:昨日(10月17日)的欧盟峰会上,除英国外的欧盟27个成员国领导人一致通过决议,支持欧盟委员会当天与英国政府达成的最新“脱欧”协议。

昨日(10月17日)的欧盟峰会上,除英国外的欧盟27个成员国领导人一致通过决议,支持欧盟委员会当天与英国政府达成的最新“脱欧”协议
 
 
艰苦谈判了这么久,英国首相鲍里斯·约翰逊终于在最后关头谈成了协议。但你以为这就是这场“脱欧”大戏的终曲了吗?并没有!
 
10月19日(周六),英国议会将坐下来,就这份协议进行投票。 
 
约翰逊所在的保守党此前最大的同盟北爱尔兰民主统一党(DUP)目前对这份协议表示强烈反对,其余包括工党、苏格兰民族党以及自由民主党在内的各党派也纷纷发出不会支持的声音。
 
10月18日一早,各大英媒的头版都在讨论明天这场至关重要的投票
 
《泰晤士报》:达成协议后,约翰逊面临眼前的最后一个障碍
 
《每日镜报》:英国再一次离“脱欧”一步之遥

 
《每日快报》喊出了Nike的口号: Just do it!这是英国民众对议会的大声喊话
 

 
《太阳报》更是玩起了押韵梗:现实(real)点,通过这份协议(deal)!

 
《每日邮报》不忘夸一下约翰逊:他已经完成了他的使命,接下来就看英国议员们的了

英国此刻再一次站在了命运的分岔口上。市场如何看待周六的议会投票?过去的一周,如此跌宕起伏的“脱欧”剧情对英镑产生了怎样的影响
 
瑞麟资本资产管理总监Duncan Donald带来了他的分析
 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Donald先生是瑞麟集团资产管理总监。瑞麟资本是瑞麟集团的核心组成部分,位于伦敦,由英国金融行为监管局FCA授权监管。 瑞麟资本是一个国际化的金融平台,旨在为投资者在地产、私募股权以及二级金融市场的股票,债券和外汇方面提供广泛的投资机会与一站式的管理服务。

 

尽管我们都预料到了,“脱欧大戏”将进行到最后一刻,但上周一到今天的进展仍然让人出乎意料。10月7日上午,英国首相鲍里斯·约翰逊与德国总理安吉拉·默克尔的一通电话过后,两人都认为达成“脱欧”协议的可能性变得渺茫。仅仅10天后,在10月17日的中午,英国与欧盟终于共同宣布,已达成一份“离婚协议”

Whilst it was always expected Brexit would go to the wire, the rate of progress we have seen since just last Monday the 7th Boris Johnson and Angela Merkel had a morning call, the result of which was that both stated there was no deal to be done.  Fast-forward just 10 days and as of midmorning Thursday 17th and the UK and EU announced that agreement has been met for the UK’s divorce from the EU. 

 

由于一直怀有英国可能会请求延长“脱欧”期限的猜测,英国与欧盟的金融市场都在为最坏情况做着准备。上周的最后关头,我们听到关于约翰逊备有一份协议的传闻。当欧盟的首席谈判代表巴尼尔确认这一积极消息时,市场十分买账,视之为可能达成脱欧协议的信号,英镑兑美元从1.2200激增至1.2700

Having been dwelling in the expectancy that we were muddling towards a further Brexit extension the markets in the UK and EU were preparing for the worst-case scenario’s. At the tail end of last week, we started to hear the rumblings of a deal from the Prime Minister’s camp and when that was confirmed by the EU’s chief negotiator Barnier the markets lapped it up as the pound surged from 1.2200 to 1.2700 against the US Dollar on the thought a deal could be reached, but it wasn’t without doubt. 

 

经过了持续不断而漫长的协商,昨天早晨,我们终于获得了英国与欧盟已达成协议的好消息。当消息最初被透露出来时,英镑开始攀升,并在约翰逊与巴尼尔正式宣布后,攀升至1.2990的高点。宣告称,英国、欧盟与爱尔兰都对这项协议十分满意。
After continued and lengthy cross channel negotiation yesterday morning we finally heard that a deal between the UK and EU had been reached.  It was announced via sources initially and the markets started to creep higher then, finally, Johnson and Barnier officially unveil that agreement had been reached and the pound surged towards a high of 1.2990. The announcement stated that this was a deal that the UK, EU and Ireland were all satisfied with. 

 

爱尔兰边境问题此前一直是“脱欧”协议中未能解决的关键点。英国北爱尔兰民主统一党与强硬脱欧派议员所组成的“欧洲研究小组”起初都对协议感到满意,这让投资者放心大胆地投资之前被认为“风险过大”的英国市场。然而,这股短暂的兴奋情绪在一个小时后就被浇灭了。北爱尔兰民主统一党紧接着表示对协议并不满意,这让势头瞬转。到了中午左右的时间,北爱尔兰民主统一党官方确认,由于对协议中关于增值税部分的不满,他们将在英国议会即将举办的“脱欧”协议投票中投反对票。这则消息让英镑跌回当日开盘价,让接近2.5%的涨幅归零。

With the Irish border having been the biggest outlying problem in the negotiations the fact that the DUP and ERG had been satisfied was what brought comfort to the markets as they piled back into UK investments that had previously been deemed too risky. However, the euphoria was short-lived as within an hour sources started to report the DUP were still not happy with the deal, at which point the momentum started to shift and the morning’s progress reseeded. At around midday, the DUP officially confirmed in an email that due to dissatisfaction on chargeable VAT they would not back this deal when Boris puts it to parliament to vote it through. This brought the pound all the way back to where it started the day reversing the near 2.5% gains already seen.

 

“脱欧”仍然没有定论。英国议会将于明天对协议进行投票,英国未来的命运此刻掌握在这些人的手中。约翰逊需要赢得至少320个支持票,才能使得协议被通过。然而,他所在的保守党并不是议会中的绝对多数,与他联手的北爱尔兰民主统一党也已表示不会支持,让情况变得严峻。约翰逊只能寄希望于获得287名保守党议员全票支持,并且,约19名的此前投反对票的工党议员以及约20名的保守党中的反对派这次能够“化敌为友”。他还可以期望获得一些独立议员投下的支持票,以及希望渺茫的来自苏格兰民族党和自由民主党的支持票。但是,支持与反对的票数将会非常接近

So Brexit sits precariously in the balance with the UK Parliament due to sit in session tomorrow the fate of the UK sits with them. Boris Johnson needs a majority of 320 votes to pass the deal and with him not holding a majority government and his coalition party stating clearly that they will not be voting with him that could be a stretch too far. Johnson will have to hope he gets full party support (287 Conservative MP’s) and that dissenting Labour votes (potentially 19 available) and former Conservative party rebels now defected from the party (potentially 20). There are also a handful of independent MP’s that could vote favourably on it and the very slim chance he could pick up SNP and Lib Dem voters. BUT, it is going to be very very close. 

 

 

我们现在无法对投票结果进行预测。英国下议院议长雅各布·里斯-莫格昨晚表示,议会可以依法让这次投票成为在同意协议与“无协议脱欧”中的二选一这样的话,许多议员将在高压下投出支持票。然而,这种“矮子里拔将军”的做法,将会很不受欢迎。介于容克昨日否定了欧盟同意英国延期“脱欧”的可能性,这是否意味着那些倾向于对协议投出反对票的议员们只能改变主意呢?我们认为反对派议员们今日可能将会继续施压,希望能再次有申请延期的选择。另外,虽然可能性很小,但“撤回脱欧请求”也可能会出现在投票选择中,不过约翰逊将会尽其所能阻止这种情况的发生。

It is still uncertain how the vote will be structured. Last night leader of the House Jacob Reece Mogg stated that they could lawfully present the vote as accepting the deal v’s Brexit with no deal, now if that was to be the case it would effectively strongarm many MP’s into acceptance of the deal. However, this would be a hugely unpopular way of structuring the vote, as making MP’s chose what they would effectively see as the least bad option. With Junker yesterday ruling out a possible further extension the likely preferred vote of opposition MP’s has now disappeared or has it? We would expect opposition MP’s to be pushing today to see if this option can be brought back to life. There does also remain the slim possibility that “Revoke Brexit” could be given as a voting option, but with that lessening probability of success for Johnson he will naturally fight to avoid this.

 

 

周六我们将得知投票的结果,现在唯一可以确定的是,当亚洲市场在英国时间周日开市时,必将受到波动。如果协议通过,我们将期待看到英镑兑美元至少增长两美分。当然,一旦结果是“无协议脱欧”,英镑和英国股市以及欧元和欧元区股市都将遭受重创

With the vote and result occurring on Saturday, one thing that remains a certainty is that market volatility when we open in Asia on Sunday. If the deal passes we could expect to see a lurch higher by at least a couple of cents against the US Dollar and of course convexly NO deal will be damaging to the pound and UK stock with the Euro and Euro stocks suffering a similar fate.

 

 
 

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